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The future of the desktop

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  3. smorrisey
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Everything is moving to the cloud. As we enter the third decade of the Web we are seeing an increasing shift from native desktop applications towards Web-hosted clones that run in browsers. For example, a range of products such as Microsoft Office Live, Google Docs, Zoho, ThinkFree, DabbleDB, Basecamp, and many others now provide Web-based alternatives to the full range of familiar desktop office productivity apps. The same is true for an increasing range of enterprise applications, led by companies such as Salesforce.com, and this process seems to be accelerating. In addition, hosted remote storage for individuals and enterprises of all sizes is now widely available and inexpensive. As these trends continue, what will happen to the desktop and where will it live?

This is a post by Nova Spivack, founder and CEO of Twine. This is the final version of an article Spivack has been working on in his public Twine. (click link for entire article)

Topic outline:

Is the desktop of the future going to just be a web-hosted version of the same old-fashioned desktop metaphors we have today?
The desktop of the future is going to be a hosted web service
The browser is going to swallow up the desktop
The focus of the desktop will shift from information to attention
Users are going to shift from acting as librarians to acting as daytraders
The Webtop will be more social and will leverage and integrate collective intelligence
The desktop of the future is going to have powerful semantic search and social search capabilities built-in
Interactive shared spaces will replace folders
The Portable Desktop
The Smart Desktop
Federated, open policies and permissions
The personal cloud
The WebOS
Who is most likely to own the future desktop

smorrisey

13 responses // The future of the desktop

  •  

    Rumor has it that Windows 7 will be the last desktop based OS for Microsoft. Everything will be going on the net from then on.

    NoGodsNoMasters
  •  

    It's tough keeping up with the developments. I'm just going to sit and hold my head for a bit, let the computer within attempt to manage it all.

    24French
  •  

    You will soon see a linux version of this type of os

    mellowmuppet
  •  

    Not liking any future that involves Tom Cruise

    eldamon
  •  

    Don't touch my precious desktops! I wouldn't trust the web for storing my files, I intend to keep control of them at home.

    Vierotchka
  •  

    I just hope in the next decade we can settle on standard for how browsers interpret style sheets. I'm a web designer and it is a HUGE pain in the ass right now to code for cross browser compatibility. If we want to advance web applications, browser compatibility would be a start.

    Pattyhax
    2 responses to this
  •  

    compatability means developing hardware/software that does not *exculde* formats, or have built in restrictions which limit the consumer, and which seperate and divide us in order to make money.

    celestialceiling
  •  

    MobileMe from Apple is sort of like this concept, and available now.

    I myself am not comfortable with the idea. It's just more control on their end instead of mine.

    MarshallsCarousel
  •  

    The trouble with that kind of premise is that it depend on a stable and reliable Net access which hasn't happened and is unlikely to be more as quick or dependable than programs that run in RAM.

    The other flaw in those ideas are how to cope with different options in hardware configurations and the software drivers for them.

    Argon18
  •  

    If a computer is going to be accessing everything through the cloud, I don't think it's going to have to be restricted to a desk. With a cloud, wouldn't it be more likely that we move to more portable solutions?

    This better turn out better than Skynet...

    ultravphunter
    1 response to this

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